What to do Opinion Polls predict about Lok Sabha 2014 elections?

Rate Blog: 
5
Average: 5 (1 vote)

We present here the findings and a review of some of the recent opinion polls (not summarized as we would like readers to go through the opinion polls to make their own conclusions). You can use this data for making your judgment on the IndiaPredicts 2014 Prediction Market event

Opinion Poll #1:  Zee News & TALEEM Research Foundation

Date:  March 13th 2014 (published), data collection period not available

Methodology:

  • Overall Methodology Document not available
  • Available for sampling procedure
  • 5% Confidence Interval used for statistical analysis
  • 4 stage random samples collected
  • 56  constituencies spread across 21 states with a four stage random sample of 13428 respondents

Key Findings:

  • Vote Share Analysis
    • BJP    37.2%
    • BJP Pre Poll Allies 3.3%
    • Congress  20.3%
    • Congress Pre Poll Allies 2.9%
    • Third Front / Regional Parties 18.2%
    • Undecided 17.4%
  • Other Salient Findings
    • 76.9% surveyed felt they could impact the outcome of election (83% among youth)
    • State Wise Predictions not available

Reference:

Opinion Poll #2:  NDTV – Hansa Research 

Date:  March 14th 2014 (published), data collection period not available

Methodology:

  • Methodology Document not available
  • Advanced interviewing techniques used
  • Advanced analytical techniques for converting vote share to seats
  • Opinion Poll to be ongoing for next two months
  • +/- 2% sampling error mentioned
  • Random sample from electoral lists
  • First poll (for results presented below) covered 46,571 in 154 constituencies(assumed)
  • Overall Sample Size of over 2 Lakh  , 350 constituencies to be covered (all three phases)

Key Findings:

  • Vote Share Analysis
  • Other Salient Findings  
    • Projects NDA crossing the half way mark with post poll allies like TRS, JMM, IND and others
    • State Wise Predictions available here

References:

Opinion Poll #3:  CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS

Date:  March 7th 2014 (Round 3 data published), Data collection Feb 17th to Feb 23rd 2014

Methodology:

  • Overall methodology document not available
  • Ongoing Tracker Surveys, multiple rounds  ( June 2013, Jan 2014 , Feb 2014)
  • Questionnaire , Sample demographic data available
  • Error Percentage Not Mentioned
  • 138 randomly selected Parliamentary constituencies in 6 States.
  • Face to face interviews of 9,104 voters

Key Findings:

  • Overall Seats

 Party / Alliance

Comments

Range

BJP+ (NDA)

BJP+Shiv sena+Akali Dal+LJP

212-232

INC+ (UPA)

INC+NCP+Kerala Allies+JMM+NC+RJD

119-139

BJP

 

193 -213

Congress

 

94-110

AAP

 

1-5

  • Vote Share Analysis

Party/Front

Jan 2014

Survey estimate

Feb 2014

Survey estimate

INC

27

26

INC allies

1

3

BJP

34

33

BJP allies

2

3

Others

36

35

  • Other Salient Findings  
  • Significant gains for BJP in UP with upto 49 seats
  • State Wise Predictions data not available

References:

Opinion Poll #4:  ABP News-Nielsen

Date:  Feb 22nd  2014 (published), Data collection February 2014

Methodology:

  • Overall methodology document not available
  • Error Percentage Not Mentioned
  • National representative sample of 29,000 randomly selected respondents

Key Findings:

  • Overall Seats
    • UPA 92      (Congress Alone 73)
    • NDA 236   ( BJP Alone 217 )
    • Left 29
    • Others 186
  • Vote Share Analysis
    • BJP + Allies (NDA) – 31%
    • Cong + Allies (UPA) – 24%
    • Left – 5%
    • Others – 40%
  • Other Salient Findings
    • Key states data available (check press release)

References:

Opinion Poll #5:  Times Now-CVoter

Date:  Feb 14th 2014 (published), Data Collection Period: Jan 15th to Feb 8th

Methodology:

  • Overall methodology document not available
  • Error Percentage not mentioned
  • National representative sample of 14142 from 28 states

Key Findings

  • Overall Seat Share

  • Vote Share Analysis
    • BJP + Allies (NDA) – 36%
    • Cong + Allies (UPA) – 22%
    • Others – 42%
  • Other Salient Findings 
    • Key states data available (refer press release

References:

Opinion Poll #6: CASI – Lok Foundation

Date:  March 9th 2014  (published), Data Collection Period: October to December 2013

Methodology:

Key Findings:

  • Overall
    • Seat Projections not provided
  • Vote Share Analysis
    • BJP + Allies (NDA) – 31%
    • Cong + Allies (UPA) – 23%
    • Others – 46%
  • Other Salient Findings

References:

Other References: